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Erdogan a Hero or Villain?



The wave of change is enveloping the world like never before these days. Since Russia's intervention in the Syrian war, nothing is working according to the elite establishment in Washington. Brexit, Donald Trump, Italian referendum and now the wave of change has struck Turkey!
As Turkey's referendum came to its conclusion. 51.36% voted "yes", where as 48.64% voted "no". A narrow margin victory fulfilled Erdogan's long awaited dream and extinguished his all sum of fears which were generated in the failed coup attempt last year. Indeed this is the part of the wave of change which is trending like fire throughout the globe. However, if you think that this a massive set back to the elite establishment in Washington. Well its not that simple.
Time will only tell that after obtaining these greater presidential powers, how will Erdogan now govern Turkey? Will he lean towards the Eurasian project developed by Russia and China or he is just another pawn of the elites in Washington. Definitely time will eventually reveal Erdogan's true ambitions and Turkey's fate. However, the dynamics of this referendum and the polarized Turkish society as a result of this referendum. Shows us a sign weather Erdogan is really a hero or villain. But before we get into detail lets consider how did we ended up here in the first place.


Origins of The Referendum

On 2011 when the current ruling party Justice and Development Party (AKP), won the general elections. They developed the aspirations for the constitutional reforms. However, this aspiration was further triggered when Erdogan became the first ever directly elected president in Turkey's history. The failed coup attempt last year in July, made Erdogan more than ever determined to strengthen and secure the president's office through reforms purposed finally by a referendum.

The Referendum

Under the current system, Turkey's chief executive is the prime minister chosen by the parliament and who is the head of the government (Just like England). Where as the president has more like a ceremonial role and is the head of the state.
This referendum contains the constitutional reforms which will change the existing constitution in Turkey. The president will became the chief executive of the country. The prime minster office will be abolished. The president will have the powers to dissolve the assembly and declare emergency by his own self.
The reforms give the president the powers to appoint cabinet minsters without parliament's approval and the cabinet minsters do not need to be a member of the parliament. The change also gives Erdogan the power to re-join his political party, unlike before when he had to resign to take the president's office.
These reforms will not take place immediately after the referendum's results. But one reform will take place immediately after the results of the referendum. That is the president's power to appoint, more than half of the members of the council that oversees the naming of judges and prosecutors. Apart from extending the presidential powers this referendum also initiates reforms like abolishing military courts and raising the number of lawmakers in parliament to 600.

The Yes Camp

The people supporting Erdogan's demand for reforms, believe that these reforms will finally make Turkey a 'stable' nation. Since the 1920's just like Italy, Turkey has experienced 64 governments. Along with many successful and unsuccessful coup attempts. Erdogan's supporters believe that these reforms will finally provide the path of a stable government. They believe a strong government will also be able to tackle terrorism with more efficiency than before since Turkey have recently been hit by major terrorist attacks.
Majority of the 'yes' voters are conservatives and belong to much countryside or rural area of the country. Some conservative supporters have also added the element of religion suggesting, Erdogan has been chosen by god since Muslims around the world are in turmoil. Turkey under Erdogan will provide the proper leadership for all Muslims around the world.

The No Camp

The people opposing the reforms in the referendum, believe that these reforms transfer too much power to the president's office. They argue that this is a major threat to freedom of expression, speech and rights in Turkey. This will lead to an authoritarian leadership and eventually end up in a dictatorship.
Majority of the 'no' voters belong to urban areas of the country. Since Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara voted no in the referendum. Their belonging to the urban areas makes many of them part of the liberal community in Turkey, hence most of them are liberals. The liberals believe that Turkey has rolled back to the Ottoman days and secularism is on the edge of its end.

Why Turkey Will Remain Secular?

The biggest misconception of this referendum is, Turkey will no longer remain secular. Erdogan has indeed used a little bit of the element of religion in his win but will keep Turkey secular at large. Weather Erdogan takes the side of US and his allies or Russia-China Eurasian unit. It is strategically impotent for Erdogan to keep Turkey secular.
Especially if Turkey takes the Russia-China Eurasian unit's side, Turkey has to remain secular. Russia can not afford a significantly religious state around the Black Sea due to threats of terror in the south. Where as Eurasia is China's main objective in the world right now, they are not in the region just for money. They want social and political impact in this region, and because of this they have to integrate in the Eurasian societies. Since Turkey is a fundamental part of this region, a secular Turkey is in interests of both China and Russia.

Conclusion

Weather the liberals rant about the coming of the new dictatorship or the pro Erdogan conservative supporters framing him as the chosen one from the heavens. The ground reality is, politically the country is divided like never before. Erdogan's governance will not be like an Ottoman caliph but rather than Lenin style (If worse) or Castro Style (If better) governance. There is no doubt about that Erdogan is a man of strong personality and will use his newly given powers. Will even try to take advantage and push the presidency for a third term (till 2029) or even beyond!
However, the world is also in a massive crisis. The civil wars in Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Somalia, Yemen and Ukraine. The growing tensions in the South China sea and Korean peninsula. The collapsing phase of the European Union and the rise of the Eurasian regions. All of these factors are indicating a power shift from the west to the east, and powers shifts also lead to confrontations. Hence, the world is closer than ever before to a third world war.
In such circumstances Erdogan has the golden opportunity to guide Turkey (since he is now a powerful president) to a road from which the nation will benefit in the post western world. However, if these new powers will consume Erdogan's rationality then he will chose the wrong sides and will not take the right decisions at the right time. Then truly he will be remembered as a dictator.
In my opinion after this referendum we will see a strong man in Turkey, who will be a bit autocratic. However due to the current world order you do need a strong man to represent your nation. The only major concern is that if these new presidential powers will overcome Erdogan's intellect. Than Turkey is on a clear path of destruction. I think Erdogon will be nor a hero or villain. Instead he will be an 'anti-hero'. Not such a pleasant guy but you need him at the moment.

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