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Portugal The Fallen Phoenix


In the above Image on the left is a portrait of Vasco Da Gama, one of the greatest explorers of all time and representing Portugal's golden age, when they were a great power. Where as on the right is a picture of a women homeless, jobless and drowned in deep poverty, representing the Portugal today. Lets now explore how a great nation has fallen from such grace and what it has become in the present world. Perhaps one the first developed nations (like Greece) to be destroyed by capitalism.

It was not a much of a surprise that the country did not had any immediate effect on it after the second world war. Since the Estado Novo regime led by Salazar was well rooted in the country. I think the historians usually do not highlight this much but the Indian invasion of Goa was the turning point in Portugal's history as it led to the Portuguese colonial wars and later the "Carnation Revaluation".


Impact of Goa's Invasion

After 1961 when India invaded Goa, liberation movements begun actively in other Portuguese colonies as well. Back at home, the Portuguese people who already were discontent with the autocratic government, thought that it was pointless to fight to keep the colonies in the Portuguese empire. However after Salazar's death, in the 1970's people had high hopes from Marcelo Caetano but he was like much the same as Salazar. It was a great opportunity for Marcelo Caetano's to continue the Estado Novo regime, if he could have made some considerable reforms in the system but it was a wrong decision for his regime to keep Salazar's traits.

The Carnation Revolution's Effects

In 1974 The "Carnation Revaluation" was a bold and risky move for the young armed force but the bloodless left wing military coup did paid off and changed Portugal forever. The military coup brought democracy, development and decolonization to Portugal. I think the military coup was the best thing they could do to submit Portugal to the road to prosperity. The revolution achieved all its goal, well very few revolution are able to completely fulfill their goals and Portugal is lucky that the "Carnation Revaluation" is one of them.

Development did happen in the country, despite the country plunged itself in recession for two years after the revolution. However the economy did bounced back in the 1980's as the economy became more capitalist. This was natural of what happens to an economy after a revolution.
Portugal could have managed the decolonization process more better, because when Portugal suddenly announced to decolonize in 1975. In many Portuguese colonies such as Angola, Mozambique, Guinea and East Timor a vacuum was created. In those days the cold war was active between the United States and Soviet Union, in such circumstances a vacuum could had devastating effects on the decolonized colonies. Unfortunately that is what exactly happened, Angola and Mozambique entered in civil wars.

Guinea's government got controlled under a signal party and East Timor was invaded by Indonesia. Moreover it caused a reasonable migrant flux to Portugal's population, as approximately 580,000 Portuguese returned home as the colonies became independent.
The biggest goal that the revolution achieved was the installation of democracy in the country. Shortly after the revolution the formation of the first  constitutional government (In 1976) was a milestone in the country's history.

However after the revolution the country made such economic and political decisions that led the country in turmoil we see today. I think that joining the European Union in 1986 was a mistake and even bigger was of growing external debt by continuously borrowing money from the IMF.

Portugal in the new millennium

In the political arena despite having a multi party system the two big political parties the Socialist Party and the Social Democratic Party got so blind in their tug of war for power that they manipulated the constitution and held early elections so many times that the government in power could not complete its term. Due to such political games Portugal neglected on analyzing major economic decisions. Another big mistake was made in 2004 when Portugal replaced its currency escudo with euro.

Portugal perhaps the first power in the sea, the once leader in the age of exploration and was considered a major power before the second world war, has fallen from the skies to the ground. The "Carnation Revolution" provided the massive potential and a great opportunity to Portugal to restore its glory by having a new start but unfortunately the ruling elite, IMF and the control from Brussels has dragged the country into turmoil. A revolution provide you the make or break situations but Portugal did not make it despite having a successful revaluation.

In 2009 Portugal budget deficit hit record 9.3 percent of GDP. In 2011, Portugal had a bailout because of a sharp increase in borrowing costs which led the economy to collapse. The bailout was a three year €78 billion ($116 billion) deal with the European Union and IMF. In 2013, it was reported that Portugal had its record high debt levels, 129% of the country's GDP. Along with high youth unemployment and growing gap between the rich and poor.

Conclusion

It is a shame that despite having a bloodless and fruitful revolution, Portugal is in still turmoil today. Other countries which had much more military coups and cival wars like Brazil, South Africa and South Korea are in much better condition than Portugal today. Finally to conclude Portugal's history after the second world war, Portugal started well went in to the right direction but eventually got off the track. There is a huge question today, that did the modern Portugal has failed to capitalize on the advantages it gained from the Carnation Revolution?

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