Skip to main content

Erdogan a Hero or Villain?



The wave of change is enveloping the world like never before these days. Since Russia's intervention in the Syrian war, nothing is working according to the elite establishment in Washington. Brexit, Donald Trump, Italian referendum and now the wave of change has struck Turkey!
As Turkey's referendum came to its conclusion. 51.36% voted "yes", where as 48.64% voted "no". A narrow margin victory fulfilled Erdogan's long awaited dream and extinguished his all sum of fears which were generated in the failed coup attempt last year. Indeed this is the part of the wave of change which is trending like fire throughout the globe. However, if you think that this a massive set back to the elite establishment in Washington. Well its not that simple.
Time will only tell that after obtaining these greater presidential powers, how will Erdogan now govern Turkey? Will he lean towards the Eurasian project developed by Russia and China or he is just another pawn of the elites in Washington. Definitely time will eventually reveal Erdogan's true ambitions and Turkey's fate. However, the dynamics of this referendum and the polarized Turkish society as a result of this referendum. Shows us a sign weather Erdogan is really a hero or villain. But before we get into detail lets consider how did we ended up here in the first place.


Origins of The Referendum

On 2011 when the current ruling party Justice and Development Party (AKP), won the general elections. They developed the aspirations for the constitutional reforms. However, this aspiration was further triggered when Erdogan became the first ever directly elected president in Turkey's history. The failed coup attempt last year in July, made Erdogan more than ever determined to strengthen and secure the president's office through reforms purposed finally by a referendum.

The Referendum

Under the current system, Turkey's chief executive is the prime minister chosen by the parliament and who is the head of the government (Just like England). Where as the president has more like a ceremonial role and is the head of the state.
This referendum contains the constitutional reforms which will change the existing constitution in Turkey. The president will became the chief executive of the country. The prime minster office will be abolished. The president will have the powers to dissolve the assembly and declare emergency by his own self.
The reforms give the president the powers to appoint cabinet minsters without parliament's approval and the cabinet minsters do not need to be a member of the parliament. The change also gives Erdogan the power to re-join his political party, unlike before when he had to resign to take the president's office.
These reforms will not take place immediately after the referendum's results. But one reform will take place immediately after the results of the referendum. That is the president's power to appoint, more than half of the members of the council that oversees the naming of judges and prosecutors. Apart from extending the presidential powers this referendum also initiates reforms like abolishing military courts and raising the number of lawmakers in parliament to 600.

The Yes Camp

The people supporting Erdogan's demand for reforms, believe that these reforms will finally make Turkey a 'stable' nation. Since the 1920's just like Italy, Turkey has experienced 64 governments. Along with many successful and unsuccessful coup attempts. Erdogan's supporters believe that these reforms will finally provide the path of a stable government. They believe a strong government will also be able to tackle terrorism with more efficiency than before since Turkey have recently been hit by major terrorist attacks.
Majority of the 'yes' voters are conservatives and belong to much countryside or rural area of the country. Some conservative supporters have also added the element of religion suggesting, Erdogan has been chosen by god since Muslims around the world are in turmoil. Turkey under Erdogan will provide the proper leadership for all Muslims around the world.

The No Camp

The people opposing the reforms in the referendum, believe that these reforms transfer too much power to the president's office. They argue that this is a major threat to freedom of expression, speech and rights in Turkey. This will lead to an authoritarian leadership and eventually end up in a dictatorship.
Majority of the 'no' voters belong to urban areas of the country. Since Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara voted no in the referendum. Their belonging to the urban areas makes many of them part of the liberal community in Turkey, hence most of them are liberals. The liberals believe that Turkey has rolled back to the Ottoman days and secularism is on the edge of its end.

Why Turkey Will Remain Secular?

The biggest misconception of this referendum is, Turkey will no longer remain secular. Erdogan has indeed used a little bit of the element of religion in his win but will keep Turkey secular at large. Weather Erdogan takes the side of US and his allies or Russia-China Eurasian unit. It is strategically impotent for Erdogan to keep Turkey secular.
Especially if Turkey takes the Russia-China Eurasian unit's side, Turkey has to remain secular. Russia can not afford a significantly religious state around the Black Sea due to threats of terror in the south. Where as Eurasia is China's main objective in the world right now, they are not in the region just for money. They want social and political impact in this region, and because of this they have to integrate in the Eurasian societies. Since Turkey is a fundamental part of this region, a secular Turkey is in interests of both China and Russia.

Conclusion

Weather the liberals rant about the coming of the new dictatorship or the pro Erdogan conservative supporters framing him as the chosen one from the heavens. The ground reality is, politically the country is divided like never before. Erdogan's governance will not be like an Ottoman caliph but rather than Lenin style (If worse) or Castro Style (If better) governance. There is no doubt about that Erdogan is a man of strong personality and will use his newly given powers. Will even try to take advantage and push the presidency for a third term (till 2029) or even beyond!
However, the world is also in a massive crisis. The civil wars in Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Somalia, Yemen and Ukraine. The growing tensions in the South China sea and Korean peninsula. The collapsing phase of the European Union and the rise of the Eurasian regions. All of these factors are indicating a power shift from the west to the east, and powers shifts also lead to confrontations. Hence, the world is closer than ever before to a third world war.
In such circumstances Erdogan has the golden opportunity to guide Turkey (since he is now a powerful president) to a road from which the nation will benefit in the post western world. However, if these new powers will consume Erdogan's rationality then he will chose the wrong sides and will not take the right decisions at the right time. Then truly he will be remembered as a dictator.
In my opinion after this referendum we will see a strong man in Turkey, who will be a bit autocratic. However due to the current world order you do need a strong man to represent your nation. The only major concern is that if these new presidential powers will overcome Erdogan's intellect. Than Turkey is on a clear path of destruction. I think Erdogon will be nor a hero or villain. Instead he will be an 'anti-hero'. Not such a pleasant guy but you need him at the moment.

You can also read this post on Wordpress.com
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

A Lost Generation

In the above featured picture, there is a comparison of the current South Korean society. On the right there is an image of the luminous skyscrapers in the capitol Seoul, displaying South Korea 's advancement, modernity, development and economic might. Where as on the left there is a picture of elderly folks who had worked day and night throughout their lives to make the South Korea which is today (the picture on the right). However, despite all their efforts in the end they were rewarded with poverty, hunger, grief and a lonely death. With no reckoning of their efforts by the younger generation, this generation of the elderly folks is indeed a lost generation. South Korea is one of the most developed nations on the planet. Known to be an Asian tiger and a key ally of the United States of America in the region. It has the world's fastest internet speed and highest smartphone ownership. Also ranked number one in 4G LTE coverage. The economy ranks 11th by nominal and 13th
Post a Comment
Read more

Japan: Utopia or Dystopia?

In the final stages of the second world war, when the United State of America humbled the Japanese by bombing Nagasaki and Hiroshima with the atomic bomb. The nation was defeated and entered an abyss. At that time almost every scholar or intellectual predicted that Japan's future is in a massive doubt. However against all odds the country rapidly broke the chains of depression and defeat. It was just in the 1970's Japan was back as a power house, this time as an economic power house. In the 1970's the nation flourished as they kept on embracing capitalism. In the mid of the 1980's Japan had already surpassed the likes of United Kingdom and France. As Japan became the second largest economy in the world and the leader of the the electronic industry. Those pundits who once predicted the country has no future, now they were claiming the land of the rising sun will even surpass the United Sate's economy. Technology triumphed in Japan, Tokyo became the world capital
Post a Comment
Read more

Not Too Big To Fail

When the Lehman Brothers got bankrupt in 2008, it initiated a shock wave through out the planet and dragged the world into a turmoil know as the 2008 financial crisis. The crisis exposed the dark side of the banks to the whole world. Without any doubt the banks were responsible for the disaster but instead of being held responsible they were saved. The UK created rescue packages for the banks and the USA bailed them out. Those people who suffered massive loss, suffering and grief still wait for justice today. As the members of the establishment in the west famously said for the banks that they are  too big to fail . However in one tiny nation there was a revolution in the making. A revolution that shocked the east and the west of the world, that nation was Iceland . A nation of only 320,000 people decided to let that banks fail! As according to them the banks were not too big too fail . It didn't just stopped here they even jailed their bankers and especially the chief execut
Post a Comment
Read more